Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Is Powerset Really a Google Killer?

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There's a lot of buzz about Powerset, a new search-engine startup that's gunning for Google (GOOG). In its latest move, Powerset has licensed search technology from Xerox's Palo Alto Research Center that lets users enter in searches in plain English.
Google has long favored wonky, algorithmic methods for analyzing the Web and matching keyword search queries to the right Web page. So in theory, a plain-English search engine that delivers better results could lure surfers away from Google.
But I strongly doubt it. Here's why.
Powerset is replaying Google's initial strategy - launching a search engine with a disruptive technology when all the other players have settled on an approach that they think works well enough. But unlike Google in its early days, Powerset is being way too noisy about what it's up to.
And a great search technology is nothing without lots of users. What Google mastered was the art of analyzing data about how users searched to determine which algorithms worked and which ones didn't. And even today, it's constantly tweaking its search results to improve them, based on years of data about millions of users.
Without a game plan to match Google's user base, I don't see how Powerset can possibly leapfrog Google. It might launch with a technology that's better than Google, but without millions of users, Powerset won't have enough data to improve its search fast enough to keep that lead.
That, of course, makes Powerset natural acquisition bait for Yahoo (YHOO) or Microsoft (MSFT), which have large user bases and are always looking for an edge over Google. Or Google itself might take a look. But Powerset as the next Google? I'm not buying it.

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